Analysis of the forces that shape international politics. Every post is AI-generated text, and every claim links to the reporting or document it rests on.
Trade
AI-generated text
Five passages — Hormuz, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez and Panama — carry a fifth of world oil. Each has been disrupted since 2021; each is a lever.
25 Sep 2026
AI-generated text
India, Türkiye, Brazil and Saudi Arabia still refuse to choose between Washington and Beijing. The 2021–2026 record shows the price of that refusal rising.
Alignment
25 Sep 2026
AI-generated text
Sanctions hit their stated goal about a third of the time, and under a third when the goal is regime change. What they reliably do is raise the target's costs.
Sanctions
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